Think signing your virtual power purchase agreement (vPPA) means you can sit back and relax until the electrons start flowing? Not so fast…
In Verse’s latest webinar, Managing vPPA Volatility Pre-COD, Director of Client Enablement Sam Cotterall flipped the script on the “set it and forget it” mindset. Between shifting policy, surging demand, and unpredictable market dynamics, the time between signing and commercial operation date (COD) can make or break your PPA’s first-year performance.
Here’s what you missed — and why you might never look at pre-COD the same way again.
The Game Has Changed — Literally
Sam kicked off with a simple truth: the energy market in which we signed deals is not the one we’re operating in today. Thanks to the recently passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act and surging AI/data center demand, we’ve moved from the predictability of chess to the chaos of dodgeball.
Translation?
- Demand up (thanks, hyperscalers and industrial electrification).
- Efficiency gains down.
- Supply lagging — clean capacity buildouts can’t keep up.
- The result? Upward price pressure and market volatility you can’t ignore.
The Pre-COD Blind Spot
Most organizations treat the time between PPA signing and COD like an intermission. But that’s a mistake. Market conditions can shift dramatically before the first invoice hits — and if you’re not watching, you can walk into budget surprises, missed revenue windows, or leadership questions you’re not ready to answer.
Case in point:
One client’s COD slipped from May to October. The result? Missing the high-priced summer months entirely — a seven-figure hit in the first six months. Not all months are created equal and not all projects are delivered on time. Stay on top of construction and plan your expectations accordingly.
Why Annual Averages Don’t Cut It
Sam made it clear: annual averages are lying to you. In markets like Spain — where solar buildout now covers up to 80% of peak demand — intraday price compression can tank PPA value during your prime generation hours.
The fix? Hour-by-hour forecasting that accounts for market saturation effects.
How to Live the Volatility Before You Live the Volatility
Verse’s approach flips the switch from contract-term NPV thinking to a monthly cash flow mindset — Instead of waiting for the first invoice, Verse equips buyers to “live” the volatility before it hits by creating a digital twin of your asset—an exact virtual model that mirrors how it will perform in the market.
Verse’s Pre-COD Playbook:
- Model like it’s live — simulate cash flows with real-time weather, market, and equipment data.
- Run dummy settlements — so finance knows exactly what invoices would look like today.
- Update regularly — to track market shifts and realign internal expectations with high-frequency forecast updates.
- Integrate asset telemetry data — so day-one performance tracking is instant and accurate.
The result?
No first-invoice, first year shock, no scrambling to explain major budget misses, and a smoother path from sustainability goals to financial clarity.
Breaking Down Silos
Finance, sustainability, procurement, leadership — they all have skin in the game. Verse’s single platform gives everyone a shared, transparent view, replacing Excel silos with one source of truth. And yes — you can trial it before committing.
Final Word
Sam wrapped it up with the mic-drop takeaway:
Make pre-COD readiness part of your standard operating procedure. Forecast like your asset is online, live the volatility before it hits, and walk into the start of your decade+ long PPA contract with confidence.
Watch the webinar replay here and see how Verse’s analytical tools helps you dodge the pre-COD blind spot.
IMPORTANT NOTICE: This page is provided for general informational purposes only and does not constitute individualized advice or a recommendation tailored to your specific circumstances. Verse provides analytics software. The platform provides generalized models, scenarios, and reporting for educational and informational purposes. Verse is not acting and does not claim to act as an advisor to any counterparty, customer, or user of this website and expressly disclaims any fiduciary relationship or similar obligation to act on behalf of or in the best interest of any such counterparty, customer, or user of this website. In addition, Verse is not registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor in order to provide advice regarding the value or advisability of trading in swaps, futures, options, or other regulated derivatives products. Past or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You should consult your own independent legal, accounting, and other professional advisors prior to engaging in any transactions or services described on this website.