Avoid the Pre-COD “Gotcha”: How to Stay Ahead of vPPA Volatility Before Day One
Think signing your virtual power purchase agreement (vPPA) means you can sit back and relax until the electrons start flowing? Not so fast.
In Verse’s recent webinar, Managing vPPA Volatility Pre-COD, Director of Client Enablement Sam Cotterall challenged the common “set it and forget it” mindset that often surrounds PPA projects. Between shifting policy, surging demand, and increasingly unpredictable market dynamics, the period between contract signing and commercial operation date (COD) can make or break your first-year performance.
Here’s what you need to know to avoid the pre-COD “gotcha” and how to walk into day one with confidence.
The Market Has Shifted — Fast
The energy market in which most organizations signed their PPAs is not the market we’re operating in today.
Thanks to the newly passed One Big Beautiful Bill Act and the explosive growth of AI and data centers, demand has accelerated faster than clean capacity can be built. Sam compared the old, predictable energy landscape to a game of chess, one where every move could be planned, but said today’s market feels more like dodgeball, with new risks coming from every direction.
Demand is rising, efficiency gains are plateauing, and supply is struggling to keep up. The result is clear: increased volatility, rising prices, and higher financial exposure.
This is where forward-thinking teams use Verse’s risk management tools to simulate energy market volatility and understand how external factors, like policy changes or construction delays, could impact their PPA performance before COD.
The Pre-COD Blind Spot
For many organizations, the time between signing and COD feels like a waiting period. But treating it as downtime can lead to costly surprises.
Market dynamics can shift significantly between signature and the first invoice. Without continuous monitoring, companies risk budget misalignment, missed revenue opportunities, and credibility issues with leadership.
One Verse client, for instance, experienced a COD delay from May to October. The project missed the high-priced summer months entirely, resulting in a seven-figure loss in the first six months alone.
Every month of delay matters and not every month delivers the same revenue potential. Staying proactive during this period means continuously revisiting assumptions, adjusting forecasts, and aligning stakeholders around the evolving market picture.
This is where scenario planning for energy procurement becomes essential. With the right simulation tools, buyers can test multiple outcomes before the project goes live, ensuring the organization is ready for whatever volatility lies ahead.
Why Annual Averages Don’t Cut It
When it comes to forecasting PPA performance, annual averages can be dangerously misleading.
In markets like Spain, where solar now meets up to 80% of peak demand, intraday price compression can drastically reduce your PPA’s value during peak production hours. On paper, your annual average may look solid, but in reality, volatility within those hours can undermine profitability.
Verse’s energy load forecasting software provides a higher-resolution view of this risk, analyzing data hour by hour to expose fluctuations and identify when your asset will earn, or lose value. Armed with that level of detail, teams can plan around real conditions, not theoretical averages.
How to Model Volatility Before It Hits
Verse’s approach helps energy buyers transition from a contract-level NPV mindset to a cash flow-based, month-to-month strategy. Instead of waiting until COD, Verse enables teams to experience volatility before it happens, simulating how assets will perform under real-world conditions using its proprietary modeling technology.
The Verse Pre-COD Playbook
- Model like it’s live: Build a digital twin of your asset using real-time market, weather, and equipment data.
- Run dummy settlements: Simulate what your invoices would look like if COD happened today, so finance can prepare.
- Update forecasts regularly: Reflect market shifts and construction delays with high-frequency model updates.
- Integrate telemetry data early: Ensure performance tracking is live from day one.
This approach transforms uncertainty into insight. The result? No first-invoice shocks, no unexpected losses, and no explaining to leadership why actuals don’t match projections.
Verse’s risk modeling energy platform allows companies to continuously evaluate and recalibrate before their project even goes online, making pre-COD readiness a built-in advantage rather than a reactive scramble.
Breaking Down Silos Before COD
Pre-COD planning isn’t just a task for energy managers, it’s a team effort across finance, sustainability, procurement, and leadership.
Verse’s unified platform provides a single source of truth that aligns every stakeholder. Instead of scattered spreadsheets, static consultant reports, or delayed updates, everyone works from a shared, real-time view of project and market performance.
This transparency builds confidence, reduces internal friction, and helps finance teams forecast accurately while sustainability leaders stay aligned with decarbonization goals.
And the best part? You can try Verse’s tools before you buy, giving teams hands-on visibility into the same data-driven models used by Fortune 1000 energy buyers.
Final Word
As Sam Cotterall put it:
“Make pre-COD readiness part of your standard operating procedure. Forecast like your asset is online, live the volatility before it hits, and walk into your PPA contract with confidence.”
The pre-COD period is not a waiting room — it’s a window of opportunity. Use it to stress-test assumptions, model volatility, and align stakeholders around a shared financial and operational reality.
Don’t wait for volatility to surprise you, simulate it first.
Watch the webinar replay here and see how Verse’s analytical tools helps you dodge the pre-COD blind spot.
IMPORTANT NOTICE: This page is provided for general informational purposes only and does not constitute individualized advice or a recommendation tailored to your specific circumstances. Verse provides analytics software. The platform provides generalized models, scenarios, and reporting for educational and informational purposes. Verse is not acting and does not claim to act as an advisor to any counterparty, customer, or user of this website and expressly disclaims any fiduciary relationship or similar obligation to act on behalf of or in the best interest of any such counterparty, customer, or user of this website. In addition, Verse is not registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a commodity trading advisor in order to provide advice regarding the value or advisability of trading in swaps, futures, options, or other regulated derivatives products. Past or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You should consult your own independent legal, accounting, and other professional advisors prior to engaging in any transactions or services described on this website.