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Why Annual PPA Performance Reviews Miss Emerging Underperformance

Sam-Cotterall

Sam Cotterall

Director of Client Enablement

Why Annual PPA Performance Reviews Miss Emerging Underperformance
Table of contents

Annual PPA performance reviews are essential for accountability, but they are late by design.

Most PPA teams do not discover PPA performance underperformance when it starts. They discover it when the reporting cycle closes, after the impact has already occurred and after someone has already had to explain why the numbers moved. Or PPA performance underperformance simply goes undiscovered.

That is not a lack of effort. It is structural. Any period-end cadence creates a built-in delay between what happens in the project and when the organization can see it clearly enough to respond. Monthly energy performance reporting can be thorough, clean, and well governed, and still miss early underperformance because reporting cadence is not the same thing as performance detection cadence. 

This matters even more because many teams ultimately manage PPAs to an annual contract-year view of PPA performance. Leadership wants to know whether the agreement delivered expected value across the settlement year and what that implies about PPA performance. That annual view is essential for governance and accountability, but it is also, by definition, late. It is a post-mortem, not an early warning system. 

The core issue is timing. Reporting documents outcomes once inputs have settled. Early detection of PPA performance drift requires signals that show deviation before the period closes, whether that period is a month or a year.

What Period-End PPA Reports Are Designed to Do 

Period-end PPA performance reporting exists for good reasons. It is designed to: 

  • Provide consistency (a repeatable view that leadership and stakeholders can rely on) 
  • Support governance and auditability (documented logic, traceable data, defensible numbers) 
  • Summarize settled outcomes (results that are stable enough to defend) 

That matters for finance teams who need accrual discipline, variance explanations, and controls that stand up in an audit room. It also matters for sustainability teams who need a coherent, repeatable story that will not be revised three times after publication. 

The nuance is simple. 

Period-end reports are built to explain what happened, not to detect performance issues as they emerge. They convert messy reality into a clean narrative after the period closes. Useful, yes. Early warning, no. 

Year-end desk calendar and stack of reports by a window overlooking wind turbines, illustrating delayed PPA performance visibility during annual reviews.

Where the Time Lag Comes From in PPAs 

The lag comes from sequencing. This sequencing is why PPA performance issues often become visible only after settlement and reconciliation. A simplified order of events looks like this: 

  • Generation happens (or does not) in real time 
  • Generation data arrives later, often with revisions 
  • Market pricing settles on its own schedule 
  • Settlement and invoicing occur, typically weeks later 
  • Accruals get reconciled against actuals 
  • A period-end package gets finalized and distributed 

None of that is wrong. It is how PPAs operate. 

The consequence is unavoidable. By the time underperformance is visible in a period-end report, the financial impact is usually already locked in. If you are looking at a monthly close, the month is closed and the accrual is booked. If you are looking at an annual contract-year view, whether focused on financial outcomes or asset performance/availability, you are often reviewing outcomes after dozens of operational and market events have already accumulated into a final result. 

That is why teams can put serious time into energy performance reporting and still feel like they are reacting. The constraint is timing, not effort. 

Why Underperformance Surfaces After the Impact Is Felt 

In most programs, underperformance becomes “real” only after enough time passes that drift is undeniable. 

A shortfall starts quietly. Nothing breaks. It just underdelivers. Over time the gap between expected and actual widens, forecasts drift, and the first broadly trusted signal arrives in settlement statements, invoices, or reconciliation work. 

Then the rework starts: 

  • Sustainability asks what happened because the REC story changed as volumes shifted 
  • Finance asks why exposure moved and the forecast is changing 
  • Energy teams rebuild the explanation from fragments: weather, curtailment, outages, basis, missing data, or operational limitations 

This is why late discovery creates a credibility tax. The organization asks, “Why didn’t we know sooner?” even when the honest answer is, “Because our governance view is period-end, and period-end is late by design.” 

The longer the cadence, the more the story gets reconstructed in bulk. Annual views make this worse. By the time you are explaining a contract-year miss, you are usually untangling months of interacting drivers, under time pressure, for stakeholders who wanted a simple answer. Most of the time the report provided by the developer is just skimmed (at best!).  

Reporting vs. Performance Visibility 

Reporting is documentation. Visibility is awareness of PPA performance drift early enough to avoid surprise. 

Period-end reporting is strong documentation. Awareness requires earlier signals, not faster packaging of the same period-end artifacts, and not a daily reporting strawman. The goal is not more data volume. The goal is better timing and clarity. 

PPA underperformance often starts as small deviations that compound quietly. Period-end reporting tends to treat those deviations as a narrative about the period, not as an emerging signal that deserves attention before the period closes. 

This is the difference between performance narration and performance management. Narration explains the past. Management notices drift early enough that the organization is not surprised later. 

When Telemetry Changes the Timeline 

Price spikes are a useful stress test for PPA performance visibility. During an extreme weather week, finance teams ask a basic question that period-end reporting cannot answer in time: 

  • Was our project generating when prices were high or was it offline? 

Winter storm over transmission lines with wind turbines and snow-covered solar panels, illustrating event-driven PPA performance risk and visibility challenges.

In wind, that can mean frozen turbines or weather-related outages. In solar, cloud and snow cover, inverter issues, or forced outages. The difference between online and offline during peak can be enormous, and it matters immediately. 

Near-immediate operational telemetry changes the order of awareness. Not because it replaces governance reporting, but because it answers event-window questions while they still matter: 

  • Confirm whether the project was producing during the event window 
  • Separate  “acts of operator” from “acts of nature” 
  • Set expectations with finance before invoices arrive 
  • Take action (if you actively trade) 
  • Avoid building the narrative backward under time pressure 

The point is not continuous reporting. It is shortening the gap between event and awareness when the stakes are high. Monthly reporting and annual contract-year reporting still matter for governance and reconciliation, but telemetry helps teams avoid waiting for a close cycle to learn what already happened. 

Why Energy Teams Feel the Gap First 

The lag hits differently depending on where you sit and how you experience PPA performance day to day.

Energy and PPA owners usually notice anomalies first, often informally: 

  • “This project is running light versus expectation.” 
  • “The shape looks weird.” 
  • “This period is going to come in off.” 

But those signals can feel hard to escalate when data is preliminary, revisions are common, and stakeholders expect settlement-grade certainty. 

Sustainability teams often inherit the issue downstream, when volumes or narratives suddenly need explaining. Finance teams feel it when numbers move, after accrual pressure, visible variance, or a contract-year view that does not match the approval case. 

Nobody is wrong. They are observing different layers of the same system at different times, which is why this lag creates tension. 

Energy teams feel like they are flagging smoke. Sustainability teams feel blindsided. Finance teams feel like they are handed surprises without warning. 

What Changes When Teams Don’t Rely on Close Cycles Alone 

When organizations stop treating period-end reporting as the primary mechanism for performance visibility, a few things improve, even without changing the importance of monthly packages or the annual contract-year view. 

Cross-functional team reviewing PPA performance drivers on a whiteboard to improve visibility and reduce surprises.

You tend to get: 

  • Fewer surprises. Underperformance still happens, but it stops arriving as a period-end plot twist. Teams can proactively approach counterparties with real data to have constructive conversations. 
  • Clearer explanations. Teams spend less time reconstructing and more time explaining drivers with confidence. 
  • Improved cross-functional trust. Energy, sustainability, and finance stop learning about the same event at different times and blaming each other for it. 

Notice what is not on that list: more reports. The win is timing and shared awareness, not producing extra artifacts. 

Monthly review can still be valuable here. It reduces the distance between events and the governance conversation. But it should be treated as a governance and narrative-control cadence, not as the only detection mechanism. 

Period-End Reports Still Matter, Just Not for Early Warning 

Period-end PPA performance reporting is not the villain. It is essential. 

You need a monthly process for governance, auditability, and consistent communication. You need an annual contract-year view for accountability, true-ups, and leadership evaluation. You need settled views for finance and a stable narrative for sustainability. 

But period-end reports are not designed to function as early warning. Treating them that way creates an avoidable failure mode. Teams do more and more reporting work, and the organization still learns about underperformance only after the economic and reputational impacts are already in motion. 

If your current process reliably tells you what happened last period, it may be doing its job perfectly. The more important question is whether the organization has agreed on how, and when, it wants to notice performance issues before they become month-close or contract-year surprises. 

Because the gap most teams feel is not a reporting gap. It is a PPA performance visibility gap.